On 12 November 2024, the Department of Management held a colloquium featuring PhD student Murtala Mustapha Baba. Mr. Murtala showcased his research on "Emerging Stock Market Prices & Macroeconomic Factors: An ARDL Analysis".
The presentation delved into the relationship between emerging stock market prices and macroeconomic factors, utilizing ARDL analysis. It was highlighted that stock markets contribute significantly to economic development by mobilizing savings, facilitating price discovery, providing liquidity, and enabling risk diversification. The methodology involved analyzing real-world data to address issues such as multicollinearity, cross-sectional dependence, stationarity, and cointegration.
Key findings were shared, including that stock returns are negatively influenced by their previous values, as well as by gold prices and real exchange rate returns. Major events like the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) reduced stock prices, while the initial effects of COVID-19 had a positive impact. It was also mentioned that gold prices and stock prices often move in the same direction. These findings underscored the complex interplay between macroeconomic factors and stock market performance.
